1. Rogers and Emery Combine for Heist
Do the final scores be misleading? That is the question. Villa's run of victories was extended versus Manchester United, but so did the lingering concerns. Statistically, they were inferior by a number of key indicators – fewer shots (12-15), less possession (43-57), not as many golden opportunities (2-3). Typically, the victory was tightly contested. Consistently, statistical models sided with the opposition: according to data United had the slight advantage 1.31-1.02. Yet the reality is games are not won by xG. They are won by cohesive units, shrewd management and individual talent – and Villa have all three. Morgan Rogers could be considered their sole standout, but his contributions are coming with festive regularity. Unai Emery is wily, seasoned, five years ahead of Ruben Amorim. If Rogers profited from a positional error, that was probably because the manager identified that Yoro is not a right-back, and directed his attacker to take up a wide position, move infield and exploit the space. Talent and management, combining effectively.
2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short
When Manchester United beat Brighton 4-2 last month, their fans began to believe again. They managed three league games consecutively for the maiden instance under Ruben Amorim. They had risen to fourth. And the wins were impressive victories – over Brighton (a side they often struggle against), Liverpool (at Anfield!) and Sunderland (at home, facing a team fresh from the Championship, but still – an untroubled victory). Senne Lammens looked solid, their forward line sparked and morale was high. But then United went back to black. Over the next eight fixtures, two wins, six missed opportunities. Against Aston Villa they were the better team without ever looking like winning. Yes, the Brazilian scored a fine effort, but he also failed to convert a golden opportunity. Yes, United were cursed by absentees (to important midfielders), but they were punished for defensive errors. After 13 months in England, the coach continues to struggle with how to secure victories.
3. Arteta's Men Win Ugly to Return to the Summit
It was an evening fixture on the Saturday before Christmas but a glaring absence of finesse in the attacking areas made for a drab affair. For Everton, the issue came as no surprise with offensive players absent, and their star man failing to inspire an entire team by himself. In many respects it is remarkable that David Moyes’s side occupied a European spot in the table two weeks earlier given they have played all term without a proven goalscorer. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he relished a hard-fought three points and ascending to the summit of the table, the problem should be of similar concern given their designs on the Premier League. The manager claimed that victories will inevitably be more emphatic with hard work and perseverance. But it is fairly soon in the season for a team that can start with world-class talents, while leaving talented players on the bench, to be relying on grinding out wins.
4. Guardiola's Strict Festive Regime for Champions
During the holidays Pep Guardiola will monitor the scales to ensure his Manchester City players have not overdone the festive fare. He explained the players asked to take a day off after their 3-0 triumph but the request was denied because the performance was insufficient. So the schedule involves rehabilitation, work for those who didn't feature, and after three days off, then brief training for the upcoming match. He explained how they can get better. “My strength is deciphering what happens in the game, locating the gaps – if the players were in optimal spots, we could be more potent.” Pep also intends to enjoy a rest: “I'm taking a break with the family to relax. I'll visit Barcelona – it's highly recommended, the food is top.”
5. A Costly Goal: Isak's Injury Mars Liverpool Win
Alexander Isak’s goal at Tottenham felt, for a fleeting moment, like a statement. This was the very purpose Liverpool invested heavily for him to do, to decide close contests with his clever positioning and composure, and the assurance with which he clipped in from a neat pass looked extremely positive. So the sight of him departing immediately, due to a rash challenge, was a significant blow for the Liverpool manager and disappointing for the spectator who would like to see a top-class forward hit full tilt again. It is believed Isak has suffered a broken leg and he likely faces a lengthy period on the sidelines. It would be a significant setback with Slot’s team having snuck up on the Champions League places, putting together a string of positive results highlighted by Isak’s initial goals in their colours. Their fortunes this season appear inextricably linked to those of their record signing.
6. Did Chelsea Get Away with One?
Managers often complain about contentious refereeing decisions as a means of deflecting media attention from matters they want to keep private. The 13 points Newcastle have dropped from winning positions this season seems a case in point. The Newcastle boss certainly did not seem particularly eager to mention that costly trend following his side’s inability to hold onto a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they eventually tied. Yet Howe was surely justified in criticising a decision made by the on-field referee and VAR not to award his team a penalty following a obvious foul on the England international. With the score then 2-1, a 12-yard award could have changed the narrative. Was the decision to offer the defender the benefit of considerable doubt informed by the player's history for being very clever at earning fouls and sometimes simulating? Analysis from a respected pundit was revealing. “He sees the challenge coming,” he said. “He knows the challenge is coming and he's ready. I think he’s ready to go down. But the strength of the challenge there … it's more than just defending.”
7. Statistical Doom for Struggling Wolves
Brentford’s initial success on their travels this season spelled a welcome result for their manager. Rather than celebrate, Andrews sympathised with Wolves, the club he joined at 16. “My formative years were here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is beyond dire; statistical models state – possibly kindly – their probability of going down at virtually certain, leaving only pride at stake beyond honour. A experienced defender brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
