A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
